9 MONTH YTD PROFIT FALLS 12% ON LOWER FARES

Ryanair Holdings plc today (27 Jan.) reported a Q3 profit after tax of €149m, compared to the prior-year Q3 PAT of €15m, as traffic grew 9% to 45m passengers at marginally higher fares due to stronger close-in Christmas/New Year bookings.  Cumulative 9 month profits of €1.94bn fell 12% below PY 9 month PAT on 8% lower air fares.

	Q3 FY24	Q3 FY25	Change	YTD FY24	YTD FY25	Change
Customers	41.4m	44.9m	+9%	146.8m	160.2m	+9%
Load Factor	92%	92%	–	94%	94%	–
Revenue	€2.70bn	€2.96bn	+10%	€11.27bn	€11.65bn	+3%
Op. Costs	€2.72bn	€2.93bn	+8%	€8.88bn	€9.60bn	+8%
PAT	€15m	€149m	+€134m	€2.19bn	€1.94bn	-12%

Q3 highlights include:

• Traffic grew 9% to 45m, despite prolonged Boeing delays.
• Rev. per pax rose 1% (Q3 ave. fare & ancil. revenue per pax up 1%).
• 172 B737 “Gamechangers” in 609 fleet at 31 Dec.
• Approved OTA partnerships almost fully integrated.
• Over 50% of €800m buy-back completed at 31 Dec.
• €0.223 per share interim div. payable 26 Feb.

Ryanair Group CEO Michael O’Leary, said:

Q3 FY25 BUSINESS REVIEW

Revenue & Costs:

“Total Q3 revenue rose 10% to €2.96bn.  Scheduled revenue increased 10% to €1.92bn as traffic (despite repeated Boeing delivery delays) grew 9% at marginally higher Q3 ave. fares (+1%), helped by strong close-in Christmas/New Year bookings and easier PY comps (with last year’s Q3 holiday season impacted by the OTA boycott).  Ancillary revenues delivered another solid performance, rising 10% to €1.04bn in Q3.  Operating costs rose 8% to €2.93bn as fuel hedge savings offset higher staff and other costs due (in part) to Boeing delivery delays.

Q4 FY25 fuel is c.85% hedged at $80bbl and FY26 fuel is over 75% hedged at $77bbl, de-risking the Group from fuel price volatility.

Balance Sheet, Liquidity & Shareholder Returns:

Ryanair’s balance sheet is one of the strongest in the industry with a BBB+ credit rating (both S&P and Fitch).  On 31 Dec., gross cash was €2.77bn which delivered a modest quarter end net cash balance of €75m, despite €1.1bn capex, over €1.1bn share buybacks and a €0.2bn dividend paid last Sept.  Our owned B737 fleet (582 aircraft) is fully unencumbered, which widens Ryanair’s cost advantage over competitor airlines.  While Ryanair prepares to repay a maturing €850m bond in Sept. 2025 from internal cash resources, our competitors remain exposed to expensive (long-term) finance and rising aircraft lease costs.

We’re now over halfway through our current €800m buyback and remain on track to complete this programme by mid-2025.  When complete, Ryanair will have returned almost €9bn (incl. dividends) to our shareholders since 2008, with approx. 36% of our issued share capital repurchased and cancelled.  An interim dividend of €0.223 per share will be paid in late Feb.

FLEET & GROWTH

Ryanair had 172 B737-8200 “Gamechangers” in its 609 aircraft fleet at 31 Dec.  We continue to work with Boeing to accelerate aircraft deliveries and visited Seattle earlier this month.  While B737 production is recovering from Boeing’s strike in late 2024, we no longer expect Boeing to deliver sufficient aircraft ahead of S.25 to facilitate FY26 traffic growth to 210m passengers.  Boeing delays have forced us to revise our FY26 traffic target to 206m (just 3% growth).  We’re hopeful that the remaining 29 Gamechangers in our 210 orderbook will deliver before March 2026, enabling us to recover this delayed traffic growth in S.26 instead of S.25.  Boeing expects the MAX-10 to be certified in late 2025 which, we hope, will facilitate a timely delivery of our first 15 MAX-10s in Spring 2027 (as contracted). 

Over the coming year, we’ll reallocate this scarce capacity growth to those regions and airports (in Poland, Sweden and Italy) who are investing in growth by cutting/abolishing aviation taxes, and incentivising traffic growth.  Almost all of our S.25 capacity is now on sale, incl. 164 new routes (total 2,600 routes), and we encourage early booking on www.ryanair.com to avoid disappointment.

We expect European short-haul capacity to remain constrained in 2025 as many of Europe’s Airbus operators continue to work through Pratt & Whitney engine repairs, both major OEMs struggle with delivery backlogs, and EU airline consolidation continues, incl. Lufthansa’s takeover of ITA, Air France-KLM’s stake in SAS and the upcoming sale of TAP.  These capacity constraints, combined with our significant cost advantage, strong balance sheet, low-cost aircraft orders and industry leading operational resilience will, we believe, facilitate Ryanair’s low-fare profitable growth to 300m passengers over the next decade. 

ESG

During Q3, MSCI reconfirmed Ryanair’s ‘A’ rating, we retained Sustainalytics No.1 global large cap airline ESG ranking and Ryanair became the first major airline to have its environmental targets (to reduce CO2 per pax/km by 29% to c.50grams by 2031) validated to the latest SBTi guidelines.  In Q3 the retro-fit of winglets to our B737NG fleet (target of 409 by 2026) continued, reducing fuel burn by 1.5% and noise by 6%, and we took delivery of 2 Gamechangers (4% more seats, 16% less fuel & CO2).  Our new aircraft, increasing use of winglets and SAF commitments positions Ryanair as one of the EU’s most environmentally efficient airlines.  Plans to migrate the remaining 25% of customers who don’t already check-in via the Ryanair App to paperless boarding during 2025 are progressing well.  This initiative will remove approx. 300 tonnes of paper annually and will ensure that all customers have access to Day of Travel updates, live flight information, the convenience of Order to Seat for onboard purchases and the many other features contained in the Ryanair App (the ideal travel companion).

In 2024 European airlines suffered record ATC delays due to ATC staff shortages, poor rostering and repeated equipment failures, which caused repeated flight delays and cancellations (especially to first wave morning departures).  As we plan for S.25, we renew our call on the EU Commission to urgently deliver long delayed reform of Europe’s inefficient ATC service.  This can be achieved by demanding adequate staffing of Europe’s ATC providers, especially for the morning/first wave departures and protecting overflights (during national strikes) which would deliver dramatic environmental and punctuality benefits for EU passengers and air travel.

EU Airline Ownership & Control:

Last Sept. the Board confirmed that over 49% of Ryanair’s issued share capital was held by EU nationals.  In anticipation of the 50% threshold being reached, the Board deemed it appropriate to review the potential variation of (1) the purchase prohibition on non-EU nationals acquiring Ryanair ordinary shares (in place since 2002) or (2) the voting restrictions (in effect since Jan. 2021, following Brexit) in a manner that best ensures compliance with EU Reg. 1008/2008.  As part of this review, an engagement process with shareholders and regulators began last Sept. and is now at an advanced stage.  Current restrictions on share purchases and voting by non-EU nationals will remain in place during the review.  There can be no certainty as to the duration of this review or that any variation in approach will result from the review.  Based on current trends, the Company expects its EU shareholding to reach the 50% threshold in H1 2025, or soon thereafter.

OUTLOOK

We expect FY25 traffic to reach almost 200m (+9%) guests, subject to no further adverse news on Boeing delivery delays.  Unit costs are performing in line with expectations, as the cost gap between Ryanair and EU competitor airlines widens, and should be broadly flat for the full-year.  Our fuel hedge savings, strong interest income and some modest aircraft delay compensation are largely offsetting ex-fuel cost inflation (particularly crew pay & productivity increases, higher handling & ATC fees and the cost inefficiency of repeated B737 delivery delays).  While Q3 fares were marginally stronger than the prior year (which was impacted by the OTA boycott in late Nov. 2023), this year’s Q4 will not benefit from last year’s early Easter, which makes our Q4 PY comp. very challenging.  At this stage, we are cautiously guiding FY25 PAT in a range of €1.55bn to €1.61bn.  The final FY25 PAT outcome remains subject to avoiding adverse external developments between now and the end of Mar., incl. the risk of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, further Boeing delivery delays and ATC mismanagement/short-staffing here in Europe.”    

_{Ryanair Holdings plc, Europe’s largest airline group, is the parent company of Buzz, Lauda, Malta Air, Ryanair & Ryanair UK. Carrying c.200m guests p.a. on approx. 3,600 daily flights from 94 bases, the Group connects 237 airports in 37 countries on a fleet of over 600 aircraft, and almost 340 new Boeing 737s on order, which will enable the Ryanair Group to grow traffic to 300m p.a. by FY34. Ryanair has a team of over 27,000 highly skilled aviation professionals delivering Europe’s No.1 operational performance, and an industry leading 39-year safety record. Ryanair is one of the most efficient major EU airlines. With a young fleet and high load factors, Ryanair targets 50grams of CO₂ per pax/km by 2031 (a 27% reduction).}

^{_{Certain of the information included in this release is forward looking and is subject to important risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially and that could impact the price of Ryanair’s securities.  It is not reasonably possible to itemise all of the many factors and specific events that could affect the outlook and results of an airline operating in the European economy and the price of its securities.  Among the factors that are subject to change and could significantly impact Ryanair’s expected results and the price of its securities are the airline pricing environment, fuel costs, competition from new and existing carriers, market prices for the replacement of aircraft, costs associated with environmental, safety and security measures, actions of the Irish, U.K., European Union (“EU”) and other governments and their respective regulatory agencies, post-Brexit uncertainties, any change in the restrictions on the ownership of Ryanair’s ordinary shares and the voting rights of its shareholders and ADR holders, including as a result of regulatory changes or the actions of Ryanair itself, weather related disruptions, ATC strikes and staffing related disruptions, delays in the delivery of contracted aircraft, fluctuations in currency exchange rates and interest rates, airport access and charges, labour relations, the economic environment of the airline industry, the general economic environment in Ireland, the U.K. and Continental Europe, the general willingness of passengers to travel and other economics, social and political factors, global pandemics such as Covid-19 and unforeseen security events.}}