TRAFFIC GROWS 6% AS FARES RISE 4%

Ryanair Holdings plc today (26 Jan.) reported a Q3 PAT of €115m (pre-exceptionals) compared to a strong prior-year Q3 PAT of €149m. An €85m exceptional charge is a provision for approx. 33% of the baseless Italian AGCM fine which our lawyers are confident will be overturned on appeal.

	Q3 FY25	Q3 FY26	+/-
Passengers	44.9m	47.5m	+6%
Load Factor	92%	92%	–
Ave. fare (€)	43	44	+4%
Revenue (€)	2.96bn	3.21bn	+9%
Op. Costs (pre-except.) (€)	2.93bn	3.11bn	+6%
PAT (pre-except.) (€)	149m	115m	-22%
PAT (post. except.) (€)	149m	30m	-80%

Q3 highlights include:

• Traffic grew 6% to 47.5m.
• Rev. per pax up 3% (ave. fare +4% & ancil. rev. +1%).
• Strong cost control with unit costs flat (pre-except. charge).
• 206 B737 “Gamechangers” in 643 fleet at 31 Dec.
• 3 new bases & 106 new routes on sale for S.26.
• Fuel 80% hedged for FY27 @ $67bbl
• Italian AGCM levies baseless €256m fine which is under appeal.

Q3 FY26 REVIEW

Ryanair Group CEO Michael O’Leary, said:

Revenue & Costs:

“Q3 revenue rose 9% to €3.21bn.  Scheduled revenue increased 10% to €2.10bn as traffic grew 6% with 4% higher fares, thanks to strong Oct. school mid-term and close-in Christmas/New Year bookings.  Ancillary revenue was solid, rising 7% to €1.11bn.  Operating costs (pre-except. charge) rose 6% to €3.11bn (flat per pax).  With almost all of our B-8200 “Gamechangers” delivered, other income in Q3 dipped due to the absence of delivery delay compensation in the quarter (which was incl. in PY Q3 comp.).

Q4 FY26 fuel is 84% hedged at $77bbl and we’ve now locked-in FY27 savings with 80% of our jet-fuel requirements hedged at c.$67bbl. 

Balance Sheet, Liquidity & Returns:

Our balance sheet is strong with a BBB+ credit rating (both Fitch and S&P) and an unencumbered B737 fleet.  At 31 Dec., gross cash was €2.4bn after €1.2bn debt repayments, €1.4bn capex and €0.6bn shareholder distributions.  Liquidity is further boosted by the Group’s RCF which has c.€1bn undrawn.  Net cash was €1bn, leaving the Group well positioned to fund capex and repay our last remaining €1.2bn bond in May 2026 from internal cash resources.  This financial strength widens the cost gap between Ryanair and our competitors, many of whom remain exposed to expensive (long-term) finance and rising aircraft lease costs.

In May, we launched a €750m share buyback.  At 31 Dec. we had purchased (and cancelled) over 13.1m shares (c.46% of programme) at a cost of over €340m.  An interim div. of €0.193 per share will be paid in late Feb.

Over the last 3-years we have generated a TSR (total shareholder return) in excess of 150%, placing Ryanair comfortably in the top quartile of the Stoxx Europe 600 index TSR performers.  The Group will continue to deliver disciplined and consistent capital allocation (underpinned by a strong balance sheet) as traffic grows to 300m p.a. by FY34.

FLEET & GROWTH

The Group had 206 B737-8200 “Gamechangers” in its 643 fleet at 31 Dec. We expect to receive the final 4 Gamechangers (210 total) by the end of Feb., facilitating 4% traffic growth to 216m next year (FY27).  Boeing expects MAX-10 certification during summer 2026 and are increasingly confident that they will meet their contract delivery dates for Ryanair’s first 15 MAX-10s in Spring 2027, with 300 of these fuel-efficient aircraft due to deliver by Mar. 2034. 

This winter, we’ve allocated Ryanair’s scarce capacity to regions and airports cutting aviation taxes and incentivising traffic growth (such as Albania, Italy, Morocco, Slovakia and Sweden) by switching flights and routes away from high cost, uncompetitive markets like Austria, Belgium, Germany and regional Spain.  This trend continues into S.26, with over 106 new routes on sale (incl. 3 new bases in Rabat, Tirana and Trapani). With seats likely to sell out, we encourage all passengers to book early on www.ryanair.com to grab our lowest fares.

We expect European short-haul capacity to remain constrained to at least 2030 as the big 2 OEMs remain well behind on aircraft deliveries, Pratt & Whitney engine repair delays continue for many Airbus operators, EU airline consolidation accelerates and unprofitable airlines withdraw capacity from markets where they are unable to compete with Ryanair’s lower costs.  Industry capacity constraints, combined with our widening cost advantage, strong balance sheet, low-cost aircraft orderbook and industry leading ops resilience will, we believe, facilitate Ryanair’s controlled profitable growth to 300m passengers p.a. by FY34. 

ESG

During Q3 CDP (Carbon Disclosure Project) upgraded Ryanair’s rating to A (was A-) and MSCI reconfirmed the Group’s ‘A’ rating.  We took delivery of 7 new Gamechangers (4% more seats, 16% less fuel & CO₂) and benefitted from retrofitting winglets to c.65% of our B737NG fleet (1.5% lower fuel burn and 6% less noise).  All of our (409) NGs will be retrofitted by late 2026 and we expect to have all 210 Gamechangers in our fleet before the end of Feb., driving S.26 efficiencies.  The Groups significant investment in new technology, coupled with ambitious SAF commitments, positions Ryanair as one of Europe’s most environmentally efficient airlines.

BASELESS AGCM FINE

In late December the Italian AGCM levied a baseless €256m fine against Ryanair for our direct distribution to consumers policy in Italy.  This fine, will we believe, be overturned on appeal as it ignores and contradicts the Milan Court of Appeal ruling in Jan. 2024 which ruled that Ryanair’s direct distribution model

• “undoubtedly benefit[s] consumers” by leading to lower fares
• is “economically justified in terms of containing operating costs, and eliminating the costs associated with intermediation in ticket sales”
• “contribute[s] to…..a direct channel of communication…for any possible need for information and updates on flights”.

Both we and our Italian legal advisors are confident that the Courts will overturn this AGCM ruling on appeal.

OUTLOOK

We now expect FY26 traffic to grow 4% to almost 208m passengers (previously 207m), due to strong demand and earlier than expected Boeing deliveries.  Unit costs have performed well, and we continue to expect only modest FY26 unit cost inflation as our B-8200 deliveries, fuel hedging and effective cost control helps offset increased ATC charges, higher enviro. costs and the roll-off of last years delivery delay compensation.  While Q4 doesn’t benefit from Easter, fares are trending ahead of prior year and we now believe full-year fares will exceed the +7% growth previously guided by 1% or 2%.  At this stage, we are cautiously guiding FY26 PAT (pre-exceptional) in a range of €2.13bn to €2.23bn.  The final FY26 outcome remains exposed to adverse external developments in Q4, incl. conflict escalation in Ukraine and the Mid. East, macro-economic shocks and any further impact of repeated European ATC strikes & mismanagement.”   

ENDS

Certain of the information included in this release is forward looking and is subject to important risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially and that could impact the price of Ryanair’s securities. Forward looking statements are based on management’s beliefs and assumptions and on information currently available to management. Ryanair has no obligation to update any forward looking statements contained in this release, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. It is not reasonably possible to itemise all of the many factors and specific events that could affect the outlook and results of an airline operating in the European economy and the price of its securities. Among the factors that are subject to change and could significantly impact Ryanair’s expected results and the price of its securities are the airline pricing environment, fuel costs, competition from new and existing carriers, market prices for the maintenance and replacement of aircraft, costs associated with environmental, safety and security measures, actions of the Irish, U.K., European Union (“EU”) and other governments and their respective regulatory agencies, litigation, post-Brexit uncertainties, changes in the structure of the European Union, any further change in the restrictions on the ownership of Ryanair’s ordinary shares and the voting rights of its shareholders and ADR holders, including as a result of regulatory changes or the actions of Ryanair itself, weather related disruptions, ATC strikes and staffing related disruptions, aircraft availability and delays in the delivery of contracted aircraft, dependence on external service providers and key personnel, supply chain disruptions, tariffs, fluctuations in corporate tax rates, currency exchange rates and interest rates, airport access and charges, labour relations, the economic environment of the airline industry, the general economic environment in Ireland, the U.K. and Continental Europe, continued acceptance of low fares airlines, the general willingness of passengers to travel, war, geopolitical uncertainty and other economic, social and political factors, significant outbreaks of airborne disease and global pandemics such as Covid-19 and unforeseen security events, terrorist attacks and cyber-attacks. There may be other risks and uncertainties that Ryanair is unable to predict at this time or that Ryanair currently does not expect to have a material adverse effect on its business.