Ryanair Holdings PLC today (4 Feb) released Jan traffic statistics as follows:
| 2018 | 2019 (LF) | Growth | |
| Jan Total | 9.3m | 10.3m (91%) | +11% |
| Ryanair | 9.3m | 10.0m (91%) | +7% |
| Laudamotion | – | 0.3m (89%) | – |
| Rolling Annual | 129.4m | 140.2m (96%) | +8% |
Ryanair today (4 Feb.) reported a Q3 net loss of €20m (excl. Lauda). Strong traffic growth (+8%) to 33m was offset by a 6% decline in ave. fares due to excess winter capacity in Europe. Stronger ancillary revenue growth (+26%) was offset by higher fuel, staff and EU261 costs.
| Q3 Results (IFRS)* | Dec. 31, 2017 | Dec. 31, 2018 | % Change |
| Guests | 30.4m | 32.7m | +8% |
| Load Factor | 96% | 96% | 0% |
| Revenue | €1.41bn | €1.53bn | +9% |
| PAT/ (Net Loss) | €105.6m | (€19.6m) |
* excl. €46.5m exceptional Q3 FY19 Lauda loss
Ryanair’s Michael O’Leary said:
“While a €20m loss in Q3 was disappointing, we take comfort that this was entirely due to weaker than expected air fares so our customers are enjoying record low prices, which is good for current and future traffic growth. While ancillary revenues performed strongly, up 26% in Q3, this was offset by higher fuel, staff and EU261 costs.”
Q3 highlights include:
Revenue
Q3 revenue increased 9% to €1.53bn, up 1% per guest, due to a strong performance in ancillary revenue and increased traffic stimulated by a 6% decline in average fares to under €30 due to excess short-haul capacity in Europe. Ryanair Labs continues to drive ancillary revenue. In Q3 priority boarding and reserved seating grew strongly. A transformational improvement of our digital platform is underway (website, app & 3rd party ancillary plug-ins) and will be completed before year-end. This will further improve personalisation, and triple capacity, as we grow to 200m guests p.a. and welcome over 1bn platform visits each year.
Cost Leadership
Ryanair has the lowest unit costs of any EU airline and this gap is widening. We will take delivery of our first 5x B737 MAX “gamechanger” aircraft from April. These aircraft have 4% more seats, are 16% more fuel efficient, have 40% lower noise emissions and are hedged at an average €/$ rate of $1.24 out to FY24. They will drive unit cost efficiencies over the next 5 years. As consolidation continues and weaker European airlines fail (or sell), airports are increasingly keen to attract Ryanair’s dependable, efficient (high load factor) traffic growth. FY19 is a year of investment in our people, our systems and our business as we prepare to grow to 200m guests p.a. by 2024. In Q3 ex-fuel unit costs increased by 6%. This includes higher staff costs, including the 20% pilot pay increases, investment in engineering headcount, pilot/cabin crew training, and elevated EU261 costs due to the high number of ATC staff shortages/disruptions in FY19. We have extended our fuel hedges and are 90% hedged for FY20 at c.$71bbl and 13% hedged for Q1 FY21 at c.$63bbl.
Balance Sheet
The Group’s balance sheet (BBB+ rated) remains one of the strongest in the industry with €2.2bn gross cash and 93% of our fleet owned – 60% of which is unencumbered. In the first 9 months of FY19 Ryanair generated almost €560m net cash from operations, spent €1.2bn on capex (primarily aircraft, simulators, engines, hangars and spare parts), returned €560m to shareholders via share buybacks, and repaid over €230m debt. As a result, net debt increased to €1.5bn at quarter end.
Lauda
In December, Ryanair acquired the remaining 25% of Laudamotion. This Austrian airline will carry just over 4m customers in its first (start up) year, but was heavily loss making, mainly due to the very late release of S.18 schedules, low promotional fares, expensive aircraft leases and unhedged fuel. Due to recent improvements in schedules, fares and costs, the exceptional year 1 start-up loss has been reduced from an expected €150m to approx. €140m. Lauda is now gearing up for its second year with an increased fleet of 25 aircraft (from 19 in prior year), traffic growth to 6m guests, lower cost fuel hedges, and we expect losses to narrow substantially to between €50m and breakeven depending on S.19 peak season yields. By year 3 Lauda is on track to grow to over 7.5m customers and profitability.
Competition & Consolidation
Higher oil prices and lower fares have over the past 4 months seen a wave of EU airline failures including Primera (UK & Spain), Small Planet and Azur (Ger), Sky Works (Swi), VLM (Bel), Cobalt (Cyprus) and Cello (UK). In addition, other bigger airlines like Wow (Ice), Flybe (UK), and Germania (Ger) are urgently seeking buyers or, like Norwegian, refinancing just to survive.
Other airlines have also cut or closed bases in response to lower fares and higher fuel costs. Ryanair closed unprofitable bases in Bremen & Eindhoven and we cut aircraft numbers in Niederrhein and Hahn. Norwegian have closed multiple bases, many where they compete with Ryanair, including Rome, Las Palmas, Palma, Tenerife, Edinburgh & Belfast, and will cut their Dublin base from 6 to 1 aircraft in October. Wizz (Poznan), Lufthansa (Dusseldorf) and EasyJet (Oporto) have also announced base cuts and/or closures in recent months. We expect more closures and airline failures in 2019 due to overcapacity in the European market, which is causing continued fare weakness.
Brexit
The risk of a “no deal” Brexit remains worryingly high. While we hope that common sense will prevail, and lead to either a delay in Brexit, or agreement on the 21 month transition deal currently on the table, we have taken all necessary steps to protect Ryanair’s business in a no-deal environment.
We have now obtained a UK AOC to protect our 3 domestic UK routes, and we will place restrictions on the voting rights and share sales of non-EU shareholders for a period of time (in the event of a hard Brexit) to ensure that Ryanair remains at all times an EU owned and EU controlled airline, even if the UK exits the EU without a deal.
Guidance (excl. Lauda)
As announced on 18 Jan., Ryanair’s FY19 profit guidance will be in a range of €1.0bn to €1.1bn due to:
This guidance excludes (exceptional) start-up losses in Lauda, which have been cut from €150m to €140m primarily on the back of better than expected unit cost performance during the winter period.
While we have reasonable visibility of our Q4 bookings, we cannot rule out further cuts to air fares and/or slightly lower full year guidance especially if there are unexpected Brexit and/or security developments which adversely impact fares for close-in bookings between now and the end of March.
We do not share the recent optimistic outlook of some competitors that Summer 2019 airfares will rise. In the absence of further EU airline failures, and because of the recent fall in oil prices (which allows loss making unhedged competitors to survive longer), we expect excess short haul capacity to continue through 2019, which will we believe lead to a weaker – not stronger – fare environment.
Ryanair will continue to be load factor active / price passive in this market, which we expect will lead to lower fares for our customers, robust traffic growth and more casualties among already loss making competitors before the year end.”
Group Structure
Over the next 12 months Ryanair Holdings Plc will move to a group structure not dissimilar to that of IAG. A small senior management team will oversee the development of 4 airline subsidiaries; Ryanair DAC, Laudamotion, Ryanair Sun and Ryanair UK, each with their own CEOs and management teams. Holdings will focus upon efficient capital allocation, cost reductions, aircraft acquisitions and small scale M&A opportunities.
To lead this group structure Michael O’Leary will become Group CEO, a role in which he will concentrate on the development of the group. A replacement CEO of Ryanair DAC, who will work alongside the CEOs of Laudamotion and Ryanair Sun, will be appointed later this year. The Group CEO will be assisted in Holdings by small group legal and group finance teams. As we expand the Lauda Airbus fleet and take delivery of over 200 B737 Max aircraft, we believe this group structure will deliver cost and operating efficiencies, while enabling the group to look at other small scale M&A opportunities like the successful development of Lauda.
Board Succession
Having agreed this group strategy as the best way to grow Ryanair, Sun, Lauda and other possible airline brands, Michael O’Leary has agreed a new 5 year contract as Group CEO, which secures his services for the group until at least July 2024. His agreement to commit for a 5 year period is welcome, and will give certainty to our shareholders and allow him to guide the individual CEO’s of Ryanair, Laudamotion and Ryanair Sun.
The Board had previously committed to setting out its succession plan before the Sept. 2019 AGM. In that regard, David Bonderman (Chairman) and Kyran McLaughlin (SID) have agreed to lead the Board for 1 more year until summer 2020, but neither of them wishes to go forward or be considered for re-election at the September 2020 AGM. In order to ensure a smooth succession, Stan McCarthy who joined the Board in May 2017, has agreed to take up the position of Deputy Chairman from April 2019, and will transition to Chairman of the Board in summer 2020. Stan will bring his enormous international experience (as a former CEO of Kerry Group Plc) and leadership skills to the development of Ryanair Holdings over the coming years, although a legend like David Bonderman will be a very hard act to follow.
Laudamotion, Austria’s No. 1 low fares airline, today (29 Jan) confirmed that Ryanair has completed the purchase of 100% shareholding in Laudamotion GmbH from NL Holdings in late December. Laudamotion now becomes a 100% subsidiary of Ryanair Holdings Plc, the Group which owns Europe’s largest airline.
With the support of Ryanair Holdings, Laudamotion today announces a series of exciting growth initiatives, which includes:
Speaking in Vienna today, Laudamotion’s CEO, Andreas Gruber, said:
“With the backing of Ryanair, Laudamotion is set to grow strongly over the next 3 years to carry 10m passengers p.a. We will release details of up to 20 new routes for winter 2019 once we have completed our airport and handling negotiations by the end of March. Our summer ’19 program will allow us to carry 6m passengers in year 2, a growth rate of 50% over the 4m carried in year 1, as we continue to offer our customers in Vienna, Stuttgart, Dusseldorf and Palma the lowest air fares on a fleet of young Airbus aircraft with widespread passenger appeal and great Lauda service.”
Ryanair today (Tue 29 Jan) confirmed that its directly employed Cabin Crew in Spain have voted by a majority of 99% in favour of a recognition agreement with SITCPLA and USO, to cover all of Ryanair’s directly employed Cabin Crew in Spain.
The airline and SITCPLA and USO are now progressing a CLA (collective labour agreement) which they both hope to conclude on/before 30 April next.
Ryanair, Europe’s No. 1 airline, today (21 Jan) launched a huge Blue Monday sale with up to 20% off a million seats across its entire network for travel between February and May, allowing customers to beat the winter blues with a spring getaway on the lowest fares.
This amazing seat sale is available for travel from February to May and can only be found on the Ryanair.com website, from now until midnight tonight.
Ryanair’s Robin Kiely said:
“It’s officially the most depressing day of the year and there is no better way to help beat those winter blues than by booking a getaway. We’ve launched a huge Blue Monday sale with up to 20% off a million seats across our entire European network.
This incredible offer will end at midnight (24:00hrs) tonight, so customers should log on quickly and bag a bargain pick-me-up today.”
Book here!
Ryanair, Europe’s No.1 airline, today (18 Jan) celebrated over 250,000 bookings by Erasmus Student Network members on its exclusive platform, at its latest student mobility event in Berlin.
Delivered as part of Ryanair’s “Always Getting Better” programme, this partnership offers Erasmus students a dedicated ESN booking platform where they can avail of 15% flight discounts on the Ryanair.com website, and a free checked-in bag with every flight booked, saving ESN members an average of €33 per flight.
Over 250,000 ESN members have signed up, saving more than €7.5m on their travel costs. The second year of the exclusive partnership is now live on the Ryanair.com website, and students from over 500 Universities across almost 50 countries can avail of these exclusive travel discounts with Ryanair.
In Berlin, Ryanair’s Director of Public Affairs Diarmuid Ó Conghaile, said:
“Ryanair and ESN have done more than any organisations to promote European student mobility over the past three decades. We are pleased to have passed 250,000 bookings on our Erasmus Student Network platform, which offers university students across Europe a range of exclusive flight offers, free bags and tailored discounts to suit their budget. These 250,000 students have saved over €7.5m with Ryanair so far, and we hope many more ESN students will avail of these fantastic discounts over the coming months and years.
Any Erasmus student with a valid ESN card can sign up via the “MyRyanair” registration service and save even more while they travel on Europe’s biggest airline with the widest route network and the lowest fares.”
MEP Sven Schulze, said:
“Mobility and the free movement of people is definitely a topic that affects all of us. Every one of us travels easily back and forth in Europe all the time. Distances have become relative since trains got faster and flights got cheaper. We should always keep in mind that this is the result of successful cooperation within the EU and a great European privilege.”
Natalie Simon, Vice National Representative of ESN Germany:
“There are endless possibilities that the cooperation between Erasmus Student Network and Ryanair brings, travelling from North to South, East to West, it’s all about bringing people together.
We strongly believe that we can make an impact and change the way we are living together.
Creating an open society, curious to try and see new things, places and cultures, is what we are aiming for.”
Ryanair, Europe’s No. 1 airline, today (8 Jan) launched a massive Spring seat sale, offering up to €30 off return flights across its European network, ensuring its customers enjoy spring getaways on the lowest fares.
This amazing seat sale is available for travel from January to mid-May and can only be found on the Ryanair.com website, from now until midnight on Thursday 10th January.
Ryanair’s Robin Kiely said:
“2019 has finally arrived and what better way to celebrate than by booking a spring getaway. We’ve launched a huge spring sale offering up to €30 off return flights across our entire European network, for travel between January and mid-May.
This incredible offer will end at midnight (24:00hrs) on Thursday, so customers should log on quickly and bag a spring bargain break today.”